Voters may have turned against Fianna F�il, but giving the other lot a go will not break with the old system
The easy thing for voters to do in tough times is to boot out the incumbents. The harder thing is to agree what they want to put in the incumbents' place. That question has been posed in one form or another in elections in almost every developed democracy since the collapse of the financial sector in 2008, Britain included. On Friday it is the turn of the Irish, who staked more than most on the financial and property boom and who thus fell even farther when things imploded. Stand by for dramas.
The scale of Ireland's collective lost financial gamble is staggering. After years of rapid growth, during which a bloated construction industry accounted for a quarter of GDP and Irish banks sank nearly a third of their lending in construction projects, the Irish economy has collapsed, a process rocket-fuelled by the Fianna F�il government's guarantee of the banks' liabilities in 2008. That effectively bankrupted the Irish state and dumped the consequences on the taxpayer. The budget deficit now accounts for one-third of the nation's GDP. The economy has contracted by 14%. Irish bank losses would absorb every euro of taxes paid by the entire population for the next three years. The nation has been bailed out by the eurozone, ie Germany, to the tune of ?85bn. But the Irish will be paying the bill for years. Not surprisingly, many have decided simply to leave.
It is no shock that Irish voters have turned against Fianna F�il after all this. In a poll this week, voter satisfaction with Brian Cowen's outgoing government is on just 4%. Not surprisingly, Mr Cowen is not himself seeking re-election, though it speaks volumes that, having first won his D�il seat on the death of his father, he has now turned over his candidacy to his brother. Since first winning power in 1932, FF have never fallen below 39% in any Irish general election. Today, however, the party is on 16%. Everything points to an epochal and richly deserved drubbing this week.
But what will take its place? When the bailout bit last autumn, it looked as though Irish voters might choose the more radical of the credible options. In late 2010, Labour led the polls. But as the moment of choice has drawn nearer, Labour support has faltered, down five points in this week's poll. Today, voters seem to be gravitating to the more cautious option of Fine Gael, who may even win an unprecedented overall majority. Fine Gael are almost as much a part of the old Irish political culture as FF; unlike their rivals, though, they were not holding the parcel when the music stopped. But Ireland's voters, like those elsewhere, predictably seem keener on giving the other lot a go than on breaking with the system of which both major parties have long been beneficiaries.
Peter Beagrie Local politics Tesco Peter Atherton Stock markets Christmas and New Year
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