Enda Kenny's in-tray is full of horrors. First up, on Monday, were keenly awaited mortgage arrears figures which showed 10% of homeowners are now struggling
The man who will be taoiseach, Enda Kenny, said all the right things on Saturday night after his party secured its place in government in one of Ireland's most historic elections.
He talked of rebuilding the country and "sending a message round the world that Ireland was open for business".
He said he wanted to show that the government was back in control and was decisive.
"The people have made their choice and we are not going to leave this country without a strong and stable government," he declared.
Comforting words for a people bruised and battered by the previous administration, led by the now extinguished Fianna F�il and its leader Brian Cowen.
But comfort won't last long for a population battling with finances, emigration and unemployment.
Mortgage arrears just keep on rising
New mortgage arrears figures released on Monday by the Central Bank show 6% of the country's households are now in mortgage arrears ? 44,508 homeowners have not made a monthly payment for more than 90 days.
This compares with 28,603 in arrears the previous year to the end of December 2009.
Worse ? there are a further 35,205 who have done private deals with banks ? to pay interest only, get mortgage holidays etc. That's 80,000 in total who are in arrears or have restructured mortgages, meaning 10% of the total mortgage population are in trouble.
These figures will be a cold shower for Kenny and his team, because they underline how real the prospect of a second wave of debt default is, something economist Morgan Kelly predicted last year when he suggested 19th century-style social revolt from the middle-classes.
He may yet be proved right.
At the moment the financial regulator's code of practice requires all banks to enter into restructuring talks with homeowners in difficulty and prevents them going to court to seek repossessions for at least 12 months after such a deal is broken. However critics believe this is just delaying a domestic debt default crisis for another year or two.
National Irish Bank economist Dr Ronnie O'Toole, at a recent seminar on bankruptcy tourism, said historic evidence shows that personal debt lags behind other recession indicators. "Personal insolvencies will continue to rise, even after the recession ends," he says.
Battle number two ? the EU
Some have said the new government should send Sinn F�in president Gerry Adams to do the negotiations after he was elected a TD for the first time.
Joking aside, Kenny will also be straight in to battle on the European front.
On Friday he flies to Helsinki to meet German chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi and other European leaders at an informal summit of centre-right party heads of state and government.
Over the weekend, Kenny received calls from Merkel, David Cameron and the president of the European commission, Jos� Manuel Barroso, who will also be in Helsinki.
It is understood that the issue of the IMF/EU bailout was addressed in broad terms and Cameron has already invited him to Downing Street on a date to be decided.
A commission official said Barroso had also expressed "full confidence" in Kenny and said he looked forward to "a very close and constructive co-operation" with him.
After his fighting talk about renegotiating the IMF/EU bail-out during the election campaign, the electorate will be expecting more than soothing words on Saturday morning about the possibility of a change in the interest rate. After all, every fool knows that the ECB rate of interest is only going one way ? and that is up. So let's see if Kenny can "fix" the country's mortgage on a lower rate for the next four years.
But what the international markets (and the electorate) will be watching for is movement on a deal with senior bondholders. As Stephen Kinsella, guest blogger, said here last week, the country can't live with this mountain of debt.
As he put it "every act to attempt to reduce the uncertainty around the Irish economy has failed" because it does not address the chief concern ? debt to income levels for Irish households stand at 200%".
What do you think? Comment below or if you want to contact Lisa O'Carroll privately, email her on guardian.dublin@gmail.com
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/feb/28/ireland
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